World Cup 2026 Group H Predictions & Best Bets
Group H packs two former World Cup winners, a Saudi Arabia side that just sacked Hervé Renard, and African debutants Cape Verde. Here’s the call.
Spain are group favourites at -500 and they’ll top Group H comfortably, but the value is underneath them. Uruguay at +400 to win the group is a live bet given Bielsa’s dressing-room cracks, and Cape Verde at -220 not to qualify is where the smart African punter sits.
Cape Verde are the second-smallest nation ever to qualify for a men’s FIFA World Cup at 524,877 people, behind only Iceland’s 2018 squad. That’s the narrative headline. The punter’s headline is that they drew Spain in an expanded 48-team tournament where the top two plus eight best third-placed sides go through, so the maths are tight and every fixture matters.
I’ll walk through each of the six Group H fixtures below with a recommended market and a stated price. Keep this tab open until 26 June, because MD3 is where the group’s real drama lives, especially the Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia overnight kick-off that African punters will be watching at 02:00 WAT.
Group H at a glance
| Fixture | Date | Venue | ET | WAT | EAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain v Cape Verde | 15 Jun | Atlanta | 12:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 |
| Saudi Arabia v Uruguay | 15 Jun | Miami | 18:00 | 23:00 | 01:00 (16 Jun) |
| Spain v Saudi Arabia | 21 Jun | Atlanta | 12:00 | 17:00 | 19:00 |
| Uruguay v Cape Verde | 21 Jun | Miami | 18:00 | 23:00 | 01:00 (22 Jun) |
| Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia | 26 Jun | Houston | 20:00 CT | 02:00 (27 Jun) | 04:00 (27 Jun) |
| Uruguay v Spain | 26 Jun | Guadalajara (MEX) | 20:00 CT | 02:00 (27 Jun) | 04:00 (27 Jun) |
Every Group H fixture is in the USA except Uruguay v Spain, which plays at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara, Mexico. The MD3 simultaneous kick-offs are overnight or early-morning for African audiences, so plan accordingly.
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Group H at a glance: the two tiers everyone’s pricing
Group H splits neatly into two tiers. Spain and Uruguay are the seeds and they’re priced accordingly at -500 and +400 to win the group. Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde are the supposed afterthoughts, except the market is quietly mispricing at least one of them.
Spain are -500 to win Group H (83.3% implied), Uruguay +350 to +400 (roughly 22%), Saudi Arabia +2200, and Cape Verde +4000 to +5000. The implied probabilities sum to over 108%, a standard sportsbook overround on a group market. (Source: BetMGM, Oddschecker, April 2026.)
Two former champions, one AFCON regular, one debutant
Spain sit second in the FIFA world ranking as of April 2026 (France took top spot on 1 April). Uruguay are 16th, Saudi Arabia 60th, Cape Verde 68th. That’s a group with one elite team, one top-20 side, and two squads ranked outside the FIFA Top 50. The spread is wide, which tells you everything about why Spain’s group price is short.
Both Spain and Uruguay are former World Cup winners: Spain in 2010, Uruguay in 1930 and 1950. Saudi Arabia are on their seventh WC appearance, best remembered for the 2-1 shock win over Argentina in Qatar 2022. Cape Verde are here for the first time. The Blue Sharks only played their first match as a FIFA member in 1979, and they’ve already reached an AFCON quarter-final and won a CAF World Cup qualifying group ahead of Cameroon. That’s a pace of growth that’s rare.
Where the odds are mispriced
Spain at -500 is not a playable number. You’d need a bank of N100,000 to win N20,000, and that’s before the tournament starts. The interesting prices are underneath. Uruguay at +400 to win the group pays 4x your stake for a team that beat both Brazil and Argentina in CONMEBOL qualifying. Cape Verde at -220 not to qualify is the mathematical floor I’ll back later. And the group total overround of roughly 8% means you’re better off playing match-level markets where the juice is tighter.
Spain at -500 looks like a lock. Underneath them, three storylines make Group H live all the way to MD3. Here’s what each side brings.
Spain: favourites with one nagging flaw
Spain are the tournament’s co-favourites at +450 and they should win this group handily. They’re world-class in possession, sharp in midfield, and unbeaten in 31 matches. But there’s one defensive number from Euro 2024 worth keeping an eye on before you back them at short prices.
Spain conceded shots worth 1.09 expected goals per game at Euro 2024, the second-worst xGA of any quarter-finalist. (Source: Opta Analyst, July 2024.)
The squad core and the qualifying numbers
Spain qualified for WC 2026 undefeated, winning five and drawing one, scoring 21 goals and conceding two. That’s Luis de la Fuente’s side in a sentence. The squad core is built around Lamine Yamal, Pedri, Pau Cubarsí, and Dani Olmo from Barcelona, Mikel Oyarzabal and Ander Barrenetxea from Real Sociedad, and Arsenal’s Cristhian Mosquera getting his first call-ups in March 2026. Joan García is also in the keeper conversation for the first time.
Spain’s 31-match unbeaten run includes the 2025 Nations League final, a 2-2 draw with Portugal after extra time that Spain lost on penalties. They haven’t been beaten in 90 minutes in two years. That’s a rare state for any international side heading into a World Cup.
The Euro 2024 defensive data nobody’s pricing in
Watch the numbers. Spain dominate the ball. They press high. They concede very few corners (2.86 per game at Euro 2024, the best number in the tournament). But when a side does get through their first two lines, they get a good chance. That 1.09 xGA per game is the second-worst of the Euro 2024 quarter-finalists. The specific vulnerability per Opta is down the left flank and to long balls into the left-of-centre channel. And when Spain go ahead, de la Fuente’s side drop deeper rather than pushing for a second, which cedes territory.
For Group H this matters in two places. Against Uruguay in the MD3 fixture, Bielsa’s vertical transitions and Núñez’s aerial profile (if he plays) target exactly that channel. Against Cape Verde, set pieces are Bubista’s best weapon, and Spain’s set-piece attacking efficiency isn’t elite either (only 20.5% of their Euro 2024 corners produced a shot).
Spain’s price across every market
Group winner: -500. Tournament outright: +450, co-favourite alongside France. Lamine Yamal for Golden Boot: +1800 (long in a market led by Mbappé at +600 and Harry Kane at +700).
If you’re backing Spain at all, back them on team totals in specific fixtures, not the group winner at -500. I’ll get to the numbers in the match-by-match section.
You can read more on Spain’s tournament outright case in our dedicated piece on the tournament outright market.
Uruguay: the qualification-second case, and the cracks in it
Uruguay at +400 is the value pick in Group H, on paper. Beat Brazil and Argentina in qualifying, spine of Valverde, Araújo and Ugarte, Bielsa on the touchline. But the cracks are real, and Bielsa himself has flagged them.
After Uruguay’s 5-1 defeat to the USA in November 2025, Marcelo Bielsa told reporters “on a human level, I have not yet achieved acceptance from this group.” He committed to staying as head coach through the 2026 World Cup. (Source: ESPN, Goal, November 2025.)
The Bielsa system and the spine
Bielsa-ball doesn’t change. High press, quick vertical attacks, a 4-4-2 or 4-3-3 base shape depending on the opposition, and a physical intensity that makes the opposition chase the game. The spine is Federico Valverde in midfield (Real Madrid vice-captain, 71 caps, FourFourTwo’s number-4 central midfielder in the world), Ronald Araújo at centre-back (Barcelona, La Liga and Copa del Rey winner), and Manuel Ugarte alongside Valverde (Manchester United). Darwin Núñez, now at Al-Hilal after a move from Liverpool, is the striker option if he’s fit and in favour.
That’s a top-20 international spine. And the qualifying record says it works: Uruguay finished fourth in CONMEBOL with 28 points from 18 games, with wins over both Brazil and Argentina.
What the 5-1 USA loss actually showed
You can’t unsee the Tampa match. Uruguay lost 5-1 to the USMNT in November 2025 in a friendly, their heaviest defeat since a 4-0 loss to Colombia in July 2012. It was Pochettino’s first real statement with the US, and it was brutal.
The mitigating factors are real. Valverde was missing. Núñez was suspended. Rodrigo Bentancur was sent off for a straight red. The USA pressed relentlessly. On a better day with a fit spine, it doesn’t end 5-1.
The unmitigatable bit is what Bielsa said afterwards. He held a near-two-hour press conference where he called himself “toxic”, said he was “ashamed” of the performance, and dropped the line that matters most for a betting read: “On a human level, I have not yet achieved acceptance from this group.” A Bielsa system without dressing-room buy-in is a system running on fumes. Not one of the top Group H previews I’ve seen flags this as a betting input. It should be.
The Núñez question
Núñez is the closest thing Uruguay have to a proven scorer at international level post-Suárez. His discipline with Bielsa has been a problem (the Copa America 2024 brawl aftermath and the subsequent FIFA ban) and his selection for the final squad is not a lock. If he’s in and fit, Uruguay’s attacking ceiling is higher. If he’s not, the attack leans on Valverde’s runs, Olivera wide, and whoever Bielsa promotes. Check the late-May squad announcement before committing to any Uruguay attacking-market bet.
Saudi Arabia: the Renard sacking and what Donis inherits
Saudi Arabia sacked Hervé Renard on 17 April 2026, 55 days before their opening fixture. Georgios Donis has reached full agreement to replace him. It’s the kind of chaos that should move a market, and the market has barely reacted yet.
Hervé Renard was sacked as Saudi Arabia head coach on 17 April 2026, 55 days before the tournament opener. Georgios Donis, formerly head coach of Al-Khaleej in the Saudi Pro League, has reached full agreement with SAFF to take over on a one-year contract. (Source: Al Jazeera, 17 April 2026; Softfootball.)
The sacking and Donis’s background
Renard is the coach who masterminded Saudi Arabia’s 2-1 win over Argentina at Qatar 2022. He won AFCON twice as a manager (Zambia 2012, Ivory Coast 2015). Saudi just sacked him. He’d qualified them for WC 2026 by topping AFC 4th-round Group B in October 2025, including a 3-2 win at Indonesia and a decisive 0-0 draw with Iraq. That’s a serious CV being shown the door 55 days out.
Georgios Donis is a different profile. He played as a forward in the Premier League at Blackburn Rovers. He was capped 24 times by Greece. His coaching career has been in Greece at club level and, since 2024, as head coach of Al-Khaleej in the Saudi Pro League, where he finished mid-table. He has zero senior international experience. And he has 55 days.
The squad Donis inherits and what can actually change in eight weeks
The squad is Renard’s squad. Salem Al-Dawsari (Al-Hilal) is the headline, the man who scored the second in that 2022 Argentina match and remains their most reliable wide threat. Firas Al-Brikan leads the line. Mohamed Kanno pulls the strings in midfield. Nawaf Al-Aqidi starts in goal. Musab Al-Juwayr (Al-Qadsiah), the SPL Young Player of the Year, is the newer name Donis will want to integrate. Saleh Abu-Al-Shamat at Al-Ahli and Nawaf Boushal at Al-Nassr fill out the rest.
Can Donis tactically overhaul a squad in 55 days? No. What you’ll see is Renard’s shape with Donis’s emphasis, which probably means the same low-to-mid block and set-piece focus, just without the touchline authority Renard brought. For punters that means Saudi won’t suddenly become more expansive. If anything, the defensive discipline will waver under the newer voice.
Where the market should adjust (and hasn’t)
Saudi’s group-winner price was +2200 before the sacking. As of the odds snapshots I’ve seen post-17 April, it’s barely moved. The market is treating this as a managerial footnote. I think that’s wrong. Saudi’s floor just dropped. They were already longshots; now they’re longshots with a dressing-room disruption too.
The honest read: Saudi to finish bottom is shorter than it was last week, and Saudi to get a single point across their three fixtures is a live underdog bet. Not a confident pick, but a reasonable one if the price opens beyond +200.
Cape Verde: the Blue Sharks aren’t tourists
Cape Verde arrive as the second-smallest nation ever to reach a men’s World Cup, and the smallest African nation full stop. They’re not on a lap of honour. They won their CAF qualifying group ahead of Cameroon, they’re quarter-finalists at the last AFCON, and under Bubista they’re tactically tougher than the +4000 group-winner price suggests.
Cape Verde won CAF Group D in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers with 23 points from 10 matches (7 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), conceding just 6 goals and finishing 4 points clear of Cameroon. (Source: FIFA.com, CAF, October 2025.)
The qualifying record and the Cameroon scalp
Ten matches. Seven wins. Two draws. One loss. Six goals conceded. Four points clear of Cameroon, the AFCON 2021 winners. That’s the record that got Cape Verde to this World Cup. The final qualifying fixture was a 3-0 home win over Eswatini on 13 October 2025, with second-half goals from Dailon Livramento, Willy Semedo, and veteran defender Stopira. The place went up.
This is a country with a population of 524,877. Smaller than Vermont. Smaller than a Lagos sub-district like Agege. The only smaller nation ever to reach a men’s WC is Iceland in 2018, and they picked up a point against Argentina before going home. Cape Verde’s maths are different. In an expanded 48-team format with best-thirds qualification, there’s a genuine path for them to make the Round of 32.
Bubista’s system
Pedro Leitão Brito, known as Bubista, has been in charge since 2020. He’s a former Cape Verde international centre-back and he’s built the side in his own image: organised, physically tough, tactically disciplined. The base shape is a compact low-to-mid block with set-piece threat on attack and structured press triggers from Jamiro Monteiro and Ryan Mendes, the team’s all-time top scorer and most-capped player.
Three clean sheets in five AFCON 2023 matches. Six goals conceded across 10 CAF qualifiers. A 0-0 draw with South Africa in the AFCON quarter-final before losing 3-1 on penalties. The numbers say it’s a real defensive structure, not a scrappy hopeful one.
The squad is overwhelmingly Portuguese-based, drawn from Liga Portugal and Liga 2. Vozinha at Chaves is the goalkeeper. Jordan Mendes plays for Rodez in the French second tier. Yannick Semedo is at Farense, Dailon Livramento at Casa Pia. Bebé, the former Manchester United winger, is still in the squad. There are no Premier League regulars. There are plenty of competent pros at the level below.
What the Auckland friendly told us
Cape Verde played Chile in a FIFA Series friendly at Eden Park, Auckland, on 27 March 2026. Cape Verde led 2-1 at half-time. Dailon Livramento scored in the 21st minute. Sidny Cabral added a second deep in first-half stoppage time. Then Chile scored three in the second half and won 4-2. (Source: ESPN, VAVEL, March 2026.)
The takeaway isn’t “Cape Verde are weak”. It’s “Cape Verde’s defensive structure works when they can sit deep, but they can’t trade punches open-pitch”. That matters for the Uruguay fixture on MD2, where Bielsa’s press will force Cape Verde higher up than they want to be. If they try to play through it, they’ll ship goals. If they sit deep and counter, they might nick one but they’ll still probably lose. Either way, the total goals line looks interesting. I’ll come back to that in the match-by-match section.
Prop markets worth a look for African punters
This is where African punters get the best of Cape Verde’s campaign. The group-winner market is a pure longshot at +4000 to +5000. But the prop markets are where the real fan-punter overlap sits.
+ Cape Verde to score their first-ever World Cup goal. Highly likely across three fixtures. Short price if your book lists it.
+ Cape Verde to pick up their first-ever World Cup point. The MD3 Cape Verde v Saudi fixture is the realistic path. Priced around even-money at several international books.
+ Cape Verde correct score 1-1 vs Saudi Arabia. A plausible MD3 outcome, typical price 8 to 10 to 1.
Cape Verde are the story for African punters this tournament. If your book offers these markets, this is where the fan side of the equation meets the sharp side.
The six fixtures, one by one
Here’s where Group H gets practical. Six fixtures. Six markets worth looking at, six worth avoiding. Prices below are American odds as of April 2026. Refresh before you bet, because group-stage lines move.
The 2026 World Cup format advances the top two from each four-team group plus the eight best third-placed teams to the Round of 32. A total of 32 teams from 48 get through the group stage. (Source: FIFA, Council approval March 2023.)
6.1 Spain v Cape Verde (15 June, Atlanta, 17:00 WAT)
Odds: Spain -1200 / Draw +800 / Cape Verde +2000.
Market: Spain over 3.5 team goals. Alternative: Lamine Yamal anytime scorer.
Reasoning: Spain averaged 2.1 goals per qualifying match against weaker UEFA opposition. Cape Verde’s low block is their best defensive shape, but Spain carve low blocks routinely. Don’t bet the moneyline at -1200. Bet the margin. And check our tournament top-scorer market for Yamal angles across the full tournament once it’s live.
6.2 Saudi Arabia v Uruguay (15 June, Miami, 23:00 WAT)
Odds: Saudi +475 / Draw +310 / Uruguay -235.
Market: Uruguay to win + under 2.5 total goals.
Reasoning: The only previous competitive meeting between these two was Uruguay 1-0 Saudi at Russia 2018 (Rostov, Suárez goal on his 100th cap, from a Sánchez corner). Saudi sit deep, especially under Donis’s caretaker phase. Uruguay grind out a 1-0 or 2-0. The combined market prices that shape cleanly.
6.3 Spain v Saudi Arabia (21 June, Atlanta, 17:00 WAT)
Odds: Spain heavy favourite. [VERIFY exact line closer to kick-off.]
Market: Over 2.5 Spain team goals.
Reasoning: Saudi will sit even deeper with qualification slipping after MD1. Spain will dominate the ball and pile up shots. The moneyline is unplayable. The team-total over is the play, same rationale as the Cape Verde fixture above.
6.4 Uruguay v Cape Verde (21 June, Miami, 23:00 WAT)
Odds: Uruguay -200 to -240 / Cape Verde +400 to +500. [VERIFY exact line.]
Market: Over 2.5 total goals. Secondary: Cape Verde to score. [VERIFY second market availability on target book.]
Reasoning: Cape Verde led Chile 2-1 at half-time in Auckland on 27 March, then shipped three. Against Uruguay’s press they’ll get the same experience: solid for a half, then overrun. Uruguay wins, Cape Verde scores, over 2.5 hits. Bielsa sides aren’t 1-0 grinders when the opposition tries to play football.
6.5 Cape Verde v Saudi Arabia (26 June, Houston, 02:00 WAT on 27 June)
Odds: Close to even with a slight Saudi lean. [VERIFY exact line.]
Market: Cape Verde draw-no-bet, or Cape Verde + draw (double chance).
Reasoning: This is Cape Verde’s live shot. Bubista’s best-drilled XI against a Saudi side probably with nothing to play for under a brand-new coach. For African punters watching overnight, this is the one. If Cape Verde pick up anything at this tournament, it’ll be here. Draw-no-bet is the safer version; double chance is the higher-ceiling version.
6.6 Uruguay v Spain (26 June, Guadalajara, 02:00 WAT on 27 June)
Odds: Spain favourite (~-200 to -220 implied). Dead-rubber conditional.
Market: Conditional. If both already through by MD2, lean draw + BTTS. If qualification is still on the line, Spain wins.
Reasoning: If Spain have locked the group after MD1 and MD2 (the likeliest scenario at those prices) and Uruguay have sealed second, expect rotation and reduced intensity from both benches. That’s a draw-friendly shape with both teams scoring. If the group is still unresolved, Spain push harder and win. Check the group table after 21 June before you commit.
Picking the group winner and qualifiers
Top of the group: Spain, but not at -500. Second: Uruguay at +400 is where the value is. Third-place best-thirds route: Cape Verde are priced like a no-hoper, and they’re not. Bottom: Saudi Arabia, and the Renard sacking adds to the case.
Uruguay finished fourth in CONMEBOL qualifying with 28 points from 18 games, with wins over both Brazil and Argentina. Spain won UEFA Group E undefeated with 5 wins and 1 draw. (Source: CONMEBOL standings; Al Jazeera, November 2025.)
Spain to win the group. The -500 price bakes in 83% certainty. I agree with the outcome. I can’t back the price. If you want Spain exposure, play the team totals in the MD1 and MD2 fixtures above and stay out of the headline market.
Uruguay to finish second. This is our value bet. +400 to win the group is richer than the Spain-Uruguay head-to-head record suggests (Spain have beaten Uruguay three times and drawn twice in their five meetings since 1950). The caveat is Bielsa’s dressing-room crisis. If the cracks hold together for three group games, Uruguay roll through Saudi and Cape Verde and push Spain on MD3. If they don’t, we’re watching another Tampa.
Cape Verde for third + best-thirds route. They’re priced at +162 to advance. A 3-point return off a win over Saudi, plus narrow losses to Spain and Uruguay that keep goal difference within reach, gives them a live shot at the best-thirds slot. Not a probability. A possibility worth the price.
Saudi Arabia to finish bottom. Renard’s sacking 55 days out tilts this. Saudi’s floor just dropped. Cape Verde’s defensive structure is tighter than a newly-coached Saudi side’s will be.
How to follow Group H as an African fan
Two of the six Group H fixtures kick off around 02:00 WAT on 27 June. If you’re betting the MD3 matches from Nigeria or Kenya, plan your night. If you’re following Cape Verde specifically, their must-win fixture against Saudi Arabia is one of those two overnighters.
Africa has a record 10 teams at the 2026 World Cup (Senegal, Morocco, Egypt, Ghana, Algeria, Tunisia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cape Verde, South Africa, DR Congo). Cape Verde are the only genuine debutant in this cohort. (Source: CAF, April 2026.)
This is a bigger African World Cup than the continent’s ever had. Cape Verde are the most obvious story, but DR Congo’s late-qualification via playoff and Morocco’s 2022 semi-final side returning deeper mean African punters have plenty of local angles across the whole tournament. For a full set of cross-tournament picks, see our full 2026 World Cup hub.
The practical note for Group H: MD1 prime-time for Nigeria is Spain v Cape Verde at 17:00 WAT. MD1 overnight is Saudi v Uruguay at 23:00 WAT. MD3 is the 02:00 WAT double-header on 27 June. That’s the night to set an alarm if you’re in West Africa and you care about this group.
Three bets that make sense right now
Three picks. One value, one mathematical, one match-level. All backed by the research above. Re-check the prices before you click.
Uruguay are +400 to win Group H, implying a 20% win probability, despite finishing 4th in CONMEBOL qualifying and losing 5-1 to the USA in their most recent friendly. (Source: BetMGM, ESPN, November 2025.)
Bet 1: Uruguay +400 to win Group H
The case: Spain at -500 leaves all the value on the other side. +400 prices a Uruguay upset at 20%, which is richer than the Spain v Uruguay head-to-head suggests (Spain 3W 2D 0L across 5 meetings since 1950). Bielsa’s side beat Brazil and Argentina in qualifying. They’re capable of an upset on MD3.
The risk: Bielsa’s dressing-room crisis. If Uruguay turn up like they did in Tampa in November 2025, the bet’s dead on arrival. That’s the live risk, and it’s real.
Bet 2: Cape Verde -220 not to qualify
The case: Cape Verde are +162 to advance. Beating or drawing both Spain and Uruguay, then winning against Saudi, is a narrow path. The NOT market is the mathematical floor. You’re risking N220 to win N100 on an outcome where the base case is Cape Verde losing to both Spain and Uruguay.
The risk: Best-thirds route on 3 points with decent goal difference. Not impossible. But the price is still on the right side of the maths.
Bet 3: Uruguay v Cape Verde over 2.5 goals
The case: Cape Verde shipped 4 goals to Chile in Auckland after leading 2-1 at half-time. Under Bielsa’s press, the same pattern repeats. Cape Verde will score. Uruguay will score multiple. The total lands at 3 goals or more.
The risk: A red card or a 1-0 grind. Bielsa-ball opens the game up rather than closing it down, so this should hit.
Cape Verde fan’s side bet
Cape Verde to score a goal at the tournament. US books have mostly not listed this, but international books (Bet365, Betway) and African operators tend to. Priced short, but close to certainty across three fixtures. [VERIFY market availability at L-stage.]
If you want a deeper operator-by-operator breakdown for WC 2026 specials, see our bookmaker guide for WC 2026 specials.
Responsible gambling + what to refresh before MD1
None of the above are guarantees. Group-stage football is noisy. Treat these as informed reads, not certainties, and only stake what you can afford to lose.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, visit our responsible gambling page for free support resources.
Before MD1 on 15 June, check these updates. Pre-tournament friendly results in May and early June. Donis’s first Saudi squad announcement. Final squad confirmations (Uruguay especially, for the Núñez call) in late May. Injury news across all four squads. Odds drift, because group-winner and match-level lines will move as confirmed line-ups land.
This article is current as of April 2026. We’ll refresh before the tournament starts. For the full tournament picture, see our World Cup 2026 hub.