Draw Bet Tips: This Week’s Best Draw Predictions
We may earn a commission at no extra cost to you.
One in four football matches ends in a draw, and this season’s Premier League is running above average at 27%. This week’s best draw picks come from evenly matched fixtures in Serie A and the EPL, where low xG profiles and tight head-to-head records point to stalemates. Below: our picks, the reasoning behind each, and how to combine them in an accumulator.
This Week’s Draw Picks
We look for matches where draw odds sit between 3.0 and 3.5, both teams show low expected goals (xG) profiles, and the head-to-head record features recent draws. Here are this week’s selections for the weekend of 19-20 April 2026.
Newcastle v Bournemouth (EPL, Saturday 18 April)
Draw odds: ~3.30
Bournemouth have drawn 15 of their 32 Premier League matches this season, a 47% draw rate that makes them the most draw-prone team in the division. Newcastle are mid-table and inconsistent at home. The Cherries drew 2-2 with Manchester United in their last outing, and this is exactly the type of mid-table clash where neither side controls proceedings. Back the draw.
Pisa v Genoa (Serie A, Sunday 19 April)
Draw odds: ~3.20
Pisa have drawn 12 of 25 Serie A matches this season, a 48% draw rate. Their head-to-head record with Genoa shows two draws from the last three meetings. Both sides are struggling: Pisa sit 20th, Genoa 13th. When two teams in poor form meet, the stalemate is often the path of least resistance.
Nottingham Forest v Burnley (EPL, Sunday 19 April)
Draw odds: ~3.40
Forest haven’t won at home in seven league matches. Burnley are 12 points adrift of safety with nothing left to play for except pride. When a desperate host meets a team with nothing to lose, you often get a cagey, low-quality affair. Both teams’ xG profiles have been low, and Forest’s four-match unbeaten run has been built on draws, not wins.
Everton v Liverpool (EPL, Sunday 19 April)
Draw odds: ~5.00
This one’s a longshot, but Merseyside derbies have produced 78 draws from 245 meetings. Liverpool have dominated recently (four wins in the last five meetings), but derbies are emotional matches where form goes out the window. The February 2025 meeting ended 2-2, with Tarkowski’s 98th-minute equaliser. At odds around 5.00, this is a value play, not a confidence pick. Leave it out of your accumulator and back it as a single if you fancy the upset.
Draw Accumulator of the Week
If you want to combine draws, this week’s 3-fold acca takes Newcastle v Bournemouth, Pisa v Genoa, and Forest v Burnley. At per-leg odds around 3.20-3.40, a treble pays roughly 33/1 to 39/1, so a ₦200 stake returns around ₦6,600-₦7,800 if all three land.
We’re leaving the Everton v Liverpool pick out of the acca. At 5.00 odds, it’s a value single, not an accumulator leg. The whole point of a draw acca is stacking fixtures where you’ve got a genuine 28-33% shot at a stalemate. The derby doesn’t meet that threshold.
For more on building accumulators, check out our accumulator bet tips.
The Real Odds of Hitting a Draw Acca
Here’s what most sites won’t tell you. A 2-fold draw acca hits roughly 7% of the time. A 3-fold about 2%. A 4-fold? Around 0.5%, which is once in 200 attempts.
| Acca Size | Approx. Odds | Hit Rate | ₦200 Stake Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-fold | ~10/1 | ~7% | ~₦2,200 |
| 3-fold | ~33/1 | ~2% | ~₦6,600 |
| 4-fold | ~100/1 | ~0.5% | ~₦20,000+ |
The payouts are massive, but so is the miss rate. Treat draw accas as small-stake, occasional-win bets. If you’re putting ₦100-₦500 on a 3-fold every weekend, you only need to hit once every couple of months to stay ahead.
An alternative approach: instead of backing “draw” on the 1X2 market, try covering the three most common draw scorelines (0-0, 1-1, and 2-2) in the correct score market. The combined odds are higher, and 1-1 alone accounts for roughly 11.5% of all match outcomes.
Which Leagues Have the Most Draws?
Serie A leads the big-5 European leagues this season with a 28% draw rate, followed by the Premier League at 27%. If you’re hunting draws, Italian and English football are your best hunting grounds right now.
| League | Draw % (2025-26) | Draws / Matches |
|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 28% | 72 / 254 |
| Premier League | 27% | 86 / 319 |
| La Liga | 25% | 78 / 310 |
| Bundesliga | 24% | |
| Ligue 1 | 22% | 39 / 180 |
These rates aren’t fixed. The EPL’s 27% this season is well above its 23% ten-year average. Last season was one of the lowest for goalless draws in Premier League history. This season, they’re back with a vengeance. Teams like Bournemouth (47% draw rate) and Leeds (12 draws in 32 matches) are driving the numbers up.
Place Your Draw Bets
All three of Nigeria’s major sportsbooks carry the draw market (listed as “X” or “Draw” in the 1X2 section). BetKing regularly offers better odds than Bet9ja on European football, with comparisons showing a 3-8% edge on equivalent markets [UNVERIFIED].
Here’s the quick rundown:
+ BetKing offers the best draw odds on European football. If you’re backing Serie A or EPL draws, start here.
+ Bet9ja is Nigeria’s biggest sportsbook with the widest range of markets and leagues.
+ SportyBet is competitive on EPL and Serie A draw odds, with a clean mobile app.
All three accept OPay deposits, so you can fund your account and place a ₦200 draw acca in under a minute.
For a deeper look at what each sportsbook offers, check out our full guide to betting sites in Africa.
If you’re after the full methodology behind draw prediction, including Poisson models, xG analysis, and league selection strategy, our draw betting strategy guide covers it. For daily tips across every market, head to our homepage.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, visit our responsible gambling page for free support resources.