Premier League Predictions: GW34 Tips, Odds & Analysis
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Arsenal’s nine-point cushion has melted to six in three weeks. Sunday at the Etihad decides everything.
Arsenal’s six-point lead is under siege heading into Sunday’s title decider at the Etihad, where they haven’t won since 2015. City at home looks the value pick. Across GW34, BTTS is backed by data in four fixtures, Chelsea’s xG underperformance makes them a goals magnet against Man United, and the relegation six-pointers favour home sides. Here are your predictions for every match.
Gameweek 34 Predictions — Every Match
Ten matches across three days, and there’s value in most of them. The title decider leads the card, but don’t sleep on the relegation fixtures — that’s where the form data gives you the clearest edges. I’ve broken down every match with my pick, Over/Under call, and BTTS verdict. Arsenal haven’t won at the Etihad since January 2015 — spanning six Premier League visits and over a decade of failed attempts.
> Checking odds across operators? BetKing typically prices EPL matches 3-8% higher than Bet9ja. See our full operator comparison below.
Manchester City vs Arsenal — Title Decider
City at home is the pick. Arsenal haven’t won at the Etihad since 2015, City are averaging 2.50 points per game on their own ground this season, and the Gunners are in freefall. Manchester City have won 16 of 33 home meetings with Arsenal at the Etihad, averaging 2.50 PPG at home this season.
Three weeks ago, Arsenal led by nine points. Since then? Lost to Bournemouth at home. Lost the Carabao Cup final to City. Knocked out of the FA Cup by Southampton. That’s a collapse by anyone’s standards, and it mirrors the 2023-24 pattern almost exactly — Arsenal building a commanding lead, then folding when the pressure peaks.
City, meanwhile, are doing what City always do. They’ve closed a nine-point gap to six with a game in hand. If they win that game and beat Arsenal on Sunday, the gap is zero. This fixture at the Etihad is where Arsenal’s title hopes live or die.
The earlier meeting this season at the Emirates finished 1-1 — Martinelli rescued a point in the 93rd minute. City won’t need a late equaliser at home. Their defensive record (1.13 xGA per game) means Arsenal will struggle to create, and Haaland’s FA Cup hat-trick against Liverpool on April 4 suggests his winter slump is over.
Prediction: Man City win | Over 2.5 | BTTS Yes
The Relegation Six-Pointers
Three fixtures with relegation implications this weekend, and each one tells a different story. Spurs host Brighton (De Zerbi’s old club), Forest welcome Burnley in a bottom-half must-win, and Crystal Palace host West Ham in a London derby neither can afford to lose. Tottenham’s 0.83 points per game at home is the worst record of any non-relegated team in the Premier League — 3 losses and 2 draws in their last 5 home matches.
Tottenham vs Brighton: De Zerbi’s first home match as Spurs boss, against the club he left. Awkward narrative aside, the data is brutal. Brighton have won five of their last six and are flying. Spurs are on a 13-game winless run and their home form is the worst in the top flight. The manager bounce hasn’t arrived — De Zerbi lost 1-0 at Sunderland in his first match. I’m backing Brighton here.
Prediction: Brighton win | Under 2.5 | BTTS No
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley: Forest need points to stay above the dotted line (33 points, 16th). Burnley have won one of their last 23 league games and are already relegated in all but mathematics. Forest’s defensive solidity (lowest BTTS in the league at 39%) suggests a tight, low-scoring home win.
Prediction: Forest win | Under 2.5 | BTTS No
Crystal Palace vs West Ham: Palace are 13th with 42 points, relatively safe. West Ham are 17th with 32, right on the edge. Both sides are inconsistent, and this has draw written all over it.
Prediction: Draw | Under 2.5 | BTTS No
The Rest of the Card — Quick Predictions
Here’s the rest of GW34 at a glance. The Chelsea vs Man United match is the standout — Man United’s 74% BTTS rate is the highest in the Premier League, with 23 of their 31 matches seeing both teams score.
| Match | Prediction | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | Key Stat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford vs Fulham | Brentford | Over | Yes | Igor Thiago chasing Haaland on 21 goals |
| Leeds vs Wolves | Leeds | Under | No | Wolves: lowest xG in league (1.11/game) |
| Newcastle vs Bournemouth | Draw | Over | Yes | Bournemouth have drawn 15 matches this season |
| Villa vs Sunderland | Villa | Under | No | Villa solid at home since 8-game win streak |
| Everton vs Liverpool | Liverpool | Over | Yes | Merseyside derby never disappoints |
| Chelsea vs Man United | Chelsea | Over | Yes | Utd 74% BTTS + Chelsea xG underperformer |
If you want our sure tip of the week before kick-off, we publish every Friday.
Premier League Standings — Where Things Stand
Arsenal lead, but the gap isn’t comfortable any more. Six points with City holding a game in hand means one City win plus an Arsenal stumble and this race is level. Just seven points separate 5th-placed Liverpool (52 pts) from 13th-placed Crystal Palace (42 pts) — the most congested mid-table in years. And at the bottom, a name nobody expected: Tottenham Hotspur, sitting in the relegation zone.
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 62 | 24 | +38 | 70 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 31 | 19 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 28 | +35 | 64 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 32 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 57 | 45 | +12 | 55 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 32 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 38 | +5 | 55 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 32 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 52 | 42 | +10 | 52 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 53 | 41 | +12 | 48 |
| 7 | Brentford | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 48 | 44 | +4 | 47 |
| 8 | Everton | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 39 | 37 | +2 | 47 |
| 9 | Brighton | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 43 | 37 | +6 | 46 |
| 10 | Sunderland | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 46 |
| 11 | Bournemouth | 32 | 10 | 15 | 7 | 48 | 49 | -1 | 45 |
| 12 | Fulham | 32 | 13 | 5 | 14 | 43 | 46 | -3 | 44 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 42 |
| 14 | Newcastle United | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 45 | 47 | -2 | 42 |
| 15 | Leeds United | 32 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 36 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 33 |
| 17 | West Ham United | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 32 |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur | 32 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 30 |
| 19 | Burnley | 32 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 20 |
| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 32 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 24 | 58 | -34 | 17 |
Title Race — Arsenal’s Cushion Is Melting
Three weeks ago Arsenal were nine points clear. Since then they’ve lost to Bournemouth at home, lost the Carabao Cup final to City, and been knocked out of the FA Cup by Southampton. Arsenal’s nine-point lead has shrunk to six in three weeks after those three results, and the pattern is familiar.
If you’ve seen this film before, it’s because Arsenal made it in 2023-24. A commanding lead built through autumn and winter, then eroded by spring results when the pressure peaks and City find their rhythm.
The maths is simple now. City have a game in hand. If they win that and beat Arsenal on Sunday, the gap is zero with five matches left. Arsenal’s defence has been extraordinary this season — best xGA in the league at 0.88 per 90 — but their attack has stalled. One goal against Bournemouth. None against Southampton. The confidence is leaking.
For punters, the title market still has value. Arsenal are favourites, but the price reflects a comfortable lead that no longer exists. City’s odds to win the league have shortened dramatically, and rightly so. If you fancy City to complete the comeback, this is the week to back them — the odds won’t be better.
Relegation Watch — Can Spurs Actually Go Down?
Opta says it’s a coin flip. Tottenham sit 18th with 30 points from 32 games, their 13-game winless Premier League run is the club’s worst since 1935, and they’ve burned through three managers. Opta gives them a 49.5% probability of relegation — the first time in Premier League history a club of their stature has faced those odds this late in a season.
Let that sink in. Tottenham Hotspur, a club worth over £3 billion, with a state-of-the-art stadium and a wage bill that dwarfs most of the league, are more likely to go down than stay up according to the mathematical model.
The managerial carousel tells the story. Ange Postecoglou was sacked after the wheels fell off his expansive style. Igor Tudor lasted 44 days. Now Roberto De Zerbi — the man who built Brighton into a tactical force — has been parachuted in to save them. His first match was a 1-0 loss at Sunderland. The bounce hasn’t bounced.
Here’s what Spurs need: roughly 8-9 points from their last six games to reach the ~38-39 point safety line. Their remaining fixtures:
| Date | Opponent | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr | Brighton | Home |
| 25 Apr | Wolves | Away |
| 2 May | Aston Villa | Away |
| 9 May | Leeds | Home |
| 17 May | Chelsea | Away |
| 25 May | Everton | Home |
Wolves away should be winnable — they’re already gone. Leeds at home and Everton at home are must-wins. But Villa away and Chelsea away? Those feel like losses. And Brighton this weekend, with De Zerbi facing his old club? That’s a match Spurs might lose at home, where their form (0.83 PPG) is the worst in the top flight.
The betting implication: Spurs’ relegation odds still offer value if you believe the data. Burnley (100% relegated, Opta) and Wolves (100%) are going down. The third spot is between Spurs, West Ham (32 pts), Forest (33 pts), and Leeds (36 pts). That’s tight.
How to Build a Premier League Accumulator That Doesn’t Burn Your Money
Most accumulators fail because punters pick outcomes they want rather than outcomes the data supports. BTTS is one of the safest acca markets if you know which teams to target — and which to avoid. Only 53% of Premier League matches go over 2.5 goals — barely better than a coin flip. Team-specific BTTS data is what separates a smart accumulator from a hopeful one.
Here’s the truth about accumulators: the more legs you add, the more the bookmaker’s edge compounds against you. A 10-fold BTTS acca looks great on paper. In practice, you’re handing the operator a massive edge. Keep it to 4-5 legs and focus on teams where the data is overwhelming.
BTTS leaders (safe acca legs):
+ Manchester United: 74% (23 of 31 matches)
+ Chelsea: 65%
+ Bournemouth: 65%
BTTS to avoid (acca killers):
– Nottingham Forest: 39%
– Everton: ~40%
My GW34 BTTS 4-fold:
1. Chelsea vs Man United — BTTS Yes (Utd’s 74% BTTS meets Chelsea’s xG underperformance)
2. Brentford vs Fulham — BTTS Yes (Thiago hunting goals, open London derby)
3. Newcastle vs Bournemouth — BTTS Yes (Bournemouth’s 65% BTTS, attacking style)
4. Everton vs Liverpool — BTTS Yes (Merseyside derby intensity overrides Everton’s defensive numbers)
That’s a four-fold built on data, not hope. Each leg has a statistical anchor. Will it hit? No guarantees. But it’s a smarter starting point than picking four teams you want to win.
For more on building accumulators, check out our accumulator tips page. If you like short-odds selections, we’ve got banker bet tips too.
Golden Boot Race — Haaland vs Thiago
Haaland leads with 22 goals, Thiago is on 21. But Haaland’s winter was cold — just three league goals since Christmas. Haaland has scored just 3 Premier League goals since Christmas despite leading the Golden Boot with 22, while Igor Thiago has closed the gap to a single goal and is in the form of his life.
This race is going down to the wire. Haaland’s chasing his third Golden Boot in four seasons, which would be remarkable consistency at the highest level. But Thiago, Brentford’s Brazilian striker, has been relentless — and Brentford’s open, attacking style gives him more clear chances than City’s possession-based system sometimes offers Haaland.
Both are in action this weekend. Haaland hosts Arsenal — a fixture where he’ll be the focal point of City’s attack but facing the best defence in the league (Arsenal’s 0.88 xGA per 90). Thiago faces Fulham, a match where Brentford should dominate and chances will come.
For goalscorer bets: Thiago to score against Fulham is the safer pick this week. Haaland against Arsenal’s defence is a tougher ask, even at the Etihad.
The Stats That Actually Predict Results — A Quick xG Guide
Chelsea have created the most high-quality chances in the league but scored 8.7 fewer goals than their expected goals predict. Chelsea have created 61.69 expected goals this season but scored only 53 — an 8.7-goal gap, the biggest underperformance in the Premier League. That gap tells you they’re due for a scoring run, and xG is the number that spots it.
So what is xG? In simple terms, it measures the quality of chances a team creates. A penalty is worth about 0.76 xG (it goes in roughly 76% of the time). A shot from 30 yards might be 0.03 xG. Add them up across a season and you get a picture of how many goals a team should be scoring.
When a team’s actual goals are much lower than their xG — like Chelsea’s 8.7-goal gap — it usually means their finishing has been poor, not their chance creation. Finishing tends to normalise over time. That’s why Chelsea are a regression candidate: the chances are there, and the goals should follow.
The flip side works too. If a team is scoring far more than their xG, they’re overperforming, and that’s harder to sustain. Watch for teams riding their luck.
Other xG insights for GW34:
– Arsenal’s xGA (28.26, best in the league) confirms their defence is genuinely elite, not just fortunate
– Wolves’ xG of 1.11 per game is the worst in the league — their attack is as bad as the table says
– Tottenham’s home/away split is the wildest in the top flight: 0.83 PPG at home, 2.60 PPG away. If you’re backing Spurs, back them on the road. At home they’re a different team, and not in a good way.
Where to Bet — Odds Comparison for Nigerian Punters
If you’re betting on the Premier League from Nigeria, you’ve got three solid options — and the odds difference between them is bigger than most punters realise. BetKing consistently offers 3-8% better odds than Bet9ja on equivalent EPL markets — on a ₦5,000 stake, the difference covers your next bet.
Here’s how the three stack up:
| Feature | Bet9ja | SportyBet | BetKing |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPL Odds | Baseline | Slight edge | 3-8% better |
| Mobile App | Good | Best in Nigeria | Good |
| Withdrawal Speed | 1-24 hours | Instant via OPay | 2-12 hours |
| Best For | Market depth | Speed + mobile | Value odds |
My take: if you’re placing single bets on the Premier League, BetKing’s odds advantage adds up over a season. If you’re an accumulator punter who values fast withdrawals, SportyBet’s OPay integration is hard to beat. Bet9ja remains the all-rounder with the widest market coverage — they’ll have every obscure EPL market you’re looking for.
The smart move is to have accounts with at least two operators and compare odds before every bet. It takes 30 seconds and it’s free money over time.
What’s Next
GW35 brings another loaded fixture list. Brighton host Chelsea on Monday, Burnley face Man City in what could be the final nail, and Arsenal welcome Newcastle — a must-win if Sunday doesn’t go their way. We’ll have full predictions up before kick-off.
For tactical angles on the EPL specifically, our Premier League betting strategy guide covers how to find value in the most-bet league. For other league coverage, head to our leagues hub.
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